Beyond the crystal ball

Fed sweats the details, the hunt for Do Kwon, Matthew Perry dies at 54

Good morning readers. As we head into the work week and tackle our daunting ‘to do' lists, it got us thinking about the methods we’re using or have used in the past that helped us get sh*t done. On that note, we wanted to share two great methods that help you stay organized and get things done, whether at work or at home. Our first (and probably favorite), the PARA method. PARA is a straightforward yet highly adaptable system developed to efficiently organize digital information across various platforms. The other, the GTD framework, is a framework devised by David Allen to help you organize and monitor your tasks and projects. Give ‘em a try and let us know what you think in the comments (or reply to this email). We read every reply / comment.

Let’s jump into today’s storylines.

In today’s digest:

  • Fed questions it’s traditional models

  • Headline Hustle: Israel ground operation pushes deeper into Gaza, Google invests $2 billion in Anthropic, Matthew Perry passes away at 54

  • Do Kwon’s vanishing act

  • The Week Ahead: What to Expect

  • Pulse Points: What’s Trending

ECONOMY

Fed's tightrope walk: balancing past lessons with future uncertainties

Photo by Aditya Vyas on Unsplash

Amid a backdrop of robust economic narratives, the U.S. economy is showcasing a blockbuster performance with a 4.9% leap in the third quarter, outpacing the understated 1.8% long-run potential everyone was anticipating. It's a spectacle, especially as inflation rates are playing it cool, defying the grim forecasts that had everyone on edge. This unexpected turn has left the Federal Reserve in a bit of a pickle: should they stick to the classic economic scripts that forecast a looming inflation scare when the economy overheats, or listen to the contrarians who believe we're now playing by a different set of rules?

Breaking tradition

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is voicing a compelling argument, suggesting we might be in uncharted territory. He speculates that the economy's supply-side dynamics have shifted gears, potentially offsetting inflationary pressures. But traditionalists are wary, concerned that deviating from the well-worn path of the 2% inflation target could set the stage for a financial déjà vu of the worst kind. They argue that dismissing the old models could invite a relentless inflation spiral, turning the economy into a cautionary tale.

Looking ahead…as the debate goes on, the labor market is under the spotlight. If it continues its robust performance without triggering inflationary wage increases, it could very well signal a need for a new economic playbook. However, with Jerome Powell noting potential headwinds, the storyline is far from conclusive. The unfolding scenario demands a delicate balancing act from the Fed, one that navigates between the lessons of the past and the realities of a post-pandemic world, ensuring the economic show goes on without a hitch.

Headline Hustle

🇮🇱 Israeli ground operation pushes deeper into Gaza. Israeli forces advance deep into Gaza, targeting Hamas strongholds, amidst rising tensions. As the U.S. urges Israel to maintain open communication, concerns grow over mounting civilian casualties. Diplomatic efforts see restored connectivity after a brief blackout, emphasizing the role of international aid. With the conflict hinting at a prolonged engagement, deteriorating humanitarian conditions prompt global outcry. The international community's focus sharpens on safeguarding rights and seeking diplomatic resolutions in this evolving crisis.

💰 Google invests $2 billion in Anthropic. Google is intensifying its AI game, committing up to $2 billion to Anthropic, a promising startup founded by ex-OpenAI talents. This hefty investment, part of a fierce tech race, follows Amazon's $4 billion pledge, highlighting the high-stakes battle in advanced AI development. Anthropic, post its crypto backer's collapse, now leans on tech giants and traditional investors, amassing nearly $7 billion this year. Amidst this, Google's shares wobble over its cloud unit's underwhelming performance. Nonetheless, the tech behemoth is undeterred, funneling funds into various AI ventures, aiming to revolutionize everything from virtual assistance to creative content generation.

📺 Matthew Perry passes away at 54. The world recently bid farewell to a television icon, Matthew Perry, known to many as the irreplaceable Chandler Bing from 'Friends.' At 54, Perry's sudden departure has left fans and stars alike grappling with the loss, reminiscing about his legacy both on and off-screen. Beyond the laughs, Perry was a beacon in the mental health community, candidly sharing his own battles and advocating for openness and support. His absence leaves a void, but his courage and humor—echoing through his memorable one-liners—continue to inspire. In the words of his 'Friends' creators, this is indeed "The One Where Our Hearts Are Broken."

FINANCE

The global manhunt for Do Kwon

Creator: Bloomberg | Credit: Bloomberg via Getty Images

When Daniel Kwon vaulted TerraUSD into the crypto scene, he sold the world a digital dream, woven with high-tech allure and promises of a rock-steady financial haven. But when TerraUSD nose-dived, it didn't just shatter market charts; it yanked the rug out from under thousands, turning nest eggs into dust and etching Kwon's name into the ledger as crypto's latest outlaw. But this crash wasn't just numbers tanking on screens; real people saw their life's savings vanish, and the despair drove some to unthinkable extremes. Beyond the market mayhem, it underscored the cold truth: tech's shiny veneer isn't a bulletproof vest against financial ruin.

Now you see me, now you don’t

Kwon, once a poster boy for fintech genius, morphed into a ghost, slipping through the fingers of a global manhunt. His Houdini act wasn't just a slap in the face of justice; it spotlighted the cracks in international law enforcement. While Kwon played digital cat-and-mouse, the world grappled with a bigger pickle: when tech mavericks juggle dynamite in the financial markets, who's responsible for snuffing out the fuse before it all goes boom?

Big picture: This isn't just Kwon's narrative; it's a siren call in the wilderness of the crypto frontier. It's about reining in the chaos with more than just code and whitepapers, but with real-deal safeguards. Kwon's saga could be the kick in the pants needed to clamp down on the crypto rodeo, with regulators maybe, just maybe, stepping up their game. Because when the digital dust settles, it's not just about one fugitive—it's about making sure folks don't have to watch their life's work disappear into thin air.

WEEK AHEAD

What to expect

Photo by Robb Miller on Unsplash

  • Earnings from a few high-profile companies: McDonald’s, Simon Property Group, Advanced Micro Devices, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Airbnb, CVS Health, DoorDash, Electronic Arts, Kraft Heinz, PayPal Holdings, Qualcomm, Yum! Brands, Apple, Booking Holdings, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Moderna, Novo Nordisk, Starbucks, Cboe Global Markets, and Dominion Energy are among those slated to release their earnings reports.

  • Fed’s interest rate decision: The week's highlight is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ending on Wednesday, with all eyes on the interest-rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.

  • US labor and jobs report released: On the economic front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release critical data, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September and the October jobs report, with expectations pointing to an unchanged unemployment rate. Other significant releases include the Consumer Confidence Index, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the Services PMI, providing investors with valuable insights into the health of the economy.

SNIPPETS

Pulse Points

  • X is reportedly planning to introduce a new wire service called XWire, aiming to compete with existing press release services.

  • The G7 economies are set to endorse a voluntary 11-point AI code of conduct for businesses, promoting responsible development and risk mitigation.

  • Elon Musk plans to extend SpaceX's Starlink communication services to Gaza through recognized aid groups, a move that Israel's communication minister has vowed to oppose.

  • After months of diplomatic efforts to mend relations, China and the U.S. are nearing a potential summit between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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